Review of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0920 level coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Similarly, buying on a rebound from 1.0891 did not yield expected profits, as there was no sharp upward movement.

The announcement of a downward revision of February inflation in the Eurozone, which dropped to 2.3% from the previously reported 2.4%, triggered a decline in the euro. At first glance, this slight adjustment might seem insignificant, but it had noticeable consequences in the currency markets, especially ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. It is clear that a slower pace of inflation benefits the ECB, encouraging it to continue easing monetary policy.

Now the market is in a state of anticipation. Investors will closely analyze every word from Powell, trying to gauge future policy direction. Any deviation from the expected rate trajectory could cause sharp fluctuations in currency markets. If the Fed signals confidence that inflation is nearly under control, the dollar may come under pressure, as rate cuts will certainly continue. However, if Powell emphasizes the need for a cautious, wait-and-see approach, this could support the dollar, albeit temporarily. The outcome of today's FOMC meeting will be the decisive factor for the short-term EUR/USD trend. Traders should closely monitor the news flow and be prepared for heightened volatility.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching 1.0911 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 1.0948. At 1.0948, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction. Further euro growth today would continue the uptrend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of 1.0887, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, I expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0911 and 1.0948.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.0887 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0854, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point rebound from the level). Selling pressure could return if US economic data surprises positively. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0911, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. In this case, I expect a decline to 1.0887 and 1.0854.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – suggested level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – suggested level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – important to consider overbought and oversold zones before entering a trade

Important Notes

Beginner traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major economic reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize risks. Trading without stop-loss protection can lead to rapid capital losses, especially if money management is ignored and large position sizes are used.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear and structured trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on real-time price movements are a losing strategy for intraday traders.