Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.2952 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to rise from the zero line. This confirmed the validity of the entry point for buying the pound, which resulted in growth toward the target level of 1.3009.

The absence of significant tariffs on the UK and Trump's generally anticipated tariff policy supported the pound's upward movement. However, despite this short-term optimism, caution is still advised. The UK's fundamental economic indicators remain weak, which could exert pressure on the pound. During the first half of today, the market expects data on the UK Services PMI and Composite PMI. These are closely watched, as they are important indicators of the health of the British economy. The Services PMI, in particular, reflects activity in the UK's dominant economic sector, while the Composite PMI offers a broader picture of overall economic performance.

Stronger-than-expected data could boost investor confidence in the UK's economic outlook, increase demand for the pound, and lead to further strengthening against the US dollar. Conversely, weaker data may raise concerns about slowing growth and weaken the pound.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3077 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3155 (thicker green line). At 1.3155, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. Buying the pound is justified within the framework of a continued upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3037 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A move toward 1.3077 and 1.3155 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.3037 (red line on the chart), which would likely result in a quick decline. The main target for sellers will be 1.2980, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 pip retracement). There is no need to rush with pound shorts. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3077 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to 1.3037 and 1.2980 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.