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Trump’s possible victory causes lots of rumors

Challenging but interesting times await the US economy. Experts are trying to predict its state in the event of Donald Trump's election victory. This is causing quite a stir.

According to analysts at Citibank, the billionaire currently has a 66% chance of winning the US election, which is quite impressive. If Trump takes the presidential seat again, commodity and goods markets will experience serious volatility.

Experts at the investment bank believe the most significant change for commodity markets with a Republican victory would be his plan to impose large taxes on goods America buys from other countries.

However, these taxes will not be implemented immediately. They will not come into effect within the next year. Such changes will only take effect after consideration by the US Trade Representative and approval by the relevant agencies. During this time, the Fed and ECB may lower interest rates, Citi analysts believe. This forms the basis of the bank's positive outlook for precious metal prices over the next 6–12 months.

During this time, gold prices could rise to $2,700–$3,000 per ounce and silver to $38 per ounce. The anticipation of more intense trade disagreements between the US and China will prompt investors to buy precious metals, using them as safe-haven assets. Such actions contribute to the rise in the value of gold and silver.

A potential obstacle to the price increase of both assets could be a jump in the US dollar. Nonetheless, gold is likely to outperform other commodities and financial assets.

Regarding oil, Citi analysts are more restrained. Their negative outlook for oil prices in the second half of 2025 is based on a possible reduction in global trade. At the same time, experts do not rule out that Trump could impose new sanctions on Iran. However, such measures will not have the same explosive effect as before, and other political actions could undermine oil prices.

Analysts at Citi are uncertain about how Chinese authorities might react to potential new US taxes. On the one hand, China might respond with a softer economic policy. On the other hand, it might initiate changes in its energy system. This scenario is favorable for several metals, primarily copper and aluminum. Despite potential problems, in the second half of 2025, the price of 1 ton of copper is expected to be $12,000, and 1 ton of aluminum may cost $2,800-$3,000. Citi anticipates that Chinese authorities will offset the negative impact of the tariffs through extensive economic support measures, particularly in the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors.

A potential Trump presidency may not significantly affect the development of electric vehicles in the US. Government subsidies play a key role in this industry, so even with less stringent requirements for electric vehicles and the introduction of hybrid cars, steady growth is guaranteed here, Citi emphasizes.

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