S&P 500

Overview for April 16

The US market remains resilient despite tariff turbulence from Trump

Major US indices on Tuesday: Dow -0.4%, NASDAQ 0%, S&P 500 -0.2%, S&P 500: 5,396, trading range: 5,100–5,800.

Trump's tariff wars: China has banned purchases of Boeing aircraft in response to Trump's tariff policy. China accounts for roughly 20% of the global wide-body aircraft market. Boeing shares fell around 5% on the news.

The stock market opened higher on Tuesday but ended the session with moderate losses across major indices.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.4%. Movement in either direction remained limited as investors continued to weigh the potential fallout from tariffs following a flurry of headlines related to global trade.

President Trump's comments hinted at possible tariff adjustments for the auto sector. A Bloomberg report noted that the EU and US made little progress in trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department launched a Section 232 investigation into imports of semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, pharmaceuticals, and pharmaceutical ingredients, sparking fears of a fresh wave of tariffs.

Market participants also digested earnings from Bank of America (BAC 37.99, +1.32, +3.6%) and Citigroup (C 64.33, +1.11, +1.8%), which were positively received by investors and contributed to broader equity market strength.

Market breadth was positive despite the slightly negative close in headline indices.

Advancing stocks outpaced decliners by a ratio of 3-to-2 on the NYSE and 4-to-3 on the Nasdaq. Sector moves within the S&P 500 were also relatively muted. The tech sector led gains, ending up 0.3%, while consumer discretionary lagged, closing down 0.8%.

Treasuries ended higher, building on Monday's gains. The 10-year yield slipped four basis points to 4.32%, while the 2-year yield held steady at 3.83%.

Year-to-date performance:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -5.1%S&P 500: -8.3%S&P Midcap 400: -11.8%Nasdaq Composite: -12.9%Russell 2000: -15.6%

Economic data overview:

April Empire State Manufacturing came in at -8.1 (consensus: -14.8); previous reading was -20.0.March export prices were flat at 0.0%; the prior reading was revised up to 0.5% from 0.1%.March export prices excluding agriculture declined 0.1%; previously revised to 0.5% from 0.1%.March import prices fell 0.1%; prior data was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%.Import prices excluding oil rose 0.1%; previously revised to 0.1% from 0.3%.

Wednesday's macroeconomic calendar brings a heavy data flow, including:

7:00 ET: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Index (prior: 20.0%)8:30 ET: March Retail Sales (consensus: 1.3%; prior: 0.2%)Retail Sales ex-Autos (consensus: 0.2%; prior: 0.3%)9:15 ET: March Industrial Production (consensus: -0.3%; prior: 0.7%)Capacity Utilization (consensus: 77.9%; prior: 78.2%)10:00 ET: February Business Inventories (consensus: 0.3%; prior: 0.3%)NAHB Housing Market Index for April (consensus: 39; prior: 39)10:30 ET: Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (prior: +2.55 million barrels)16:00 ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior: -$45.2 billion)

Energy: Brent crude is currently trading at $63.90.

Gold: Gold has hit a new all-time high of $3,290, fueled by escalating US-China trade tensions. Chinese banks are reportedly buying gold aggressively as a hedge against potential currency market turmoil if global trade disruptions worsen.

Conclusion: Despite President Trump's escalating rhetoric and tariffs on global trade, the US market continues to show remarkable resilience. This provides a reasonable basis for expecting the S&P 500 to resume its march towards one-year highs. The current state of the US market remains range-bound. We recommend staying long on dips and continuing to buy on sharp declines. If the market rallies to one-year highs, it would be wise to lock in profits on S&P 500 positions, specifically the SPX instrument.