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13.12.2024 01:29 PM
NZD/USD:紐元在多重壓力下走軟
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紐元/美元對連續第四天下跌,延續其每週的下跌趨勢,跌至0.5755水平,創下自2022年11月以來的新低。

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由於新西蘭儲備銀行(RBNZ)激進的貨幣寬鬆政策以及對中國經濟復甦的擔憂,紐元繼續表現不佳。

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另一方面,美國美元則鞏固了其近期的漲勢,達到一個新的月度高點,對紐元/美元對施加額外的下行壓力。

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主要驅動因素:

  1. 美國通脹數據:本週的CPI(消費者物價指數)和PPI(生產者物價指數)報告顯示,聯邦儲備的2%通脹目標的進展實際上已停滯不前。再加上市場預期在特朗普總統任下的擴張性政策可能推高通脹,這表明聯邦儲備可能會在未來採取更加謹慎的降息立場。
  2. 美國國債收益率:對於不太鴿派的聯儲政策的預期繼續支持美國國債收益率進一步上升,這對美元起到助推作用。
  3. 地緣政治風險:持續的地緣政治緊張局勢,包括延續的俄烏衝突、中東局勢不穩定,以及對與中國的貿易戰重新燃起的擔憂,進一步鞏固了美元作為避險貨幣的地位。這些事件導致資本從高風險的紐元流出。
  4. RBNZ政策和中國的擔憂:RBNZ的鴿派立場以及有關中國經濟復甦的不確定性,加劇了對紐元的看跌情緒。

市場展望:

週五,沒有預期的重大美國經濟數據發布來驅動市場走勢,因此紐元/美元對將受到美元價格動態的影響。然而,上述基本面狀況表明,現貨價格的最小阻力路徑依然是下行。

交易者可能會在下週關鍵的FOMC貨幣政策會議之前保持謹慎。日線圖上的振盪指標也接近超賣區域,這表明近期內進一步大幅下跌的可能性可能有限。

需要關注的關鍵水平:

  • 支撐:0.5750水準作為即時支撐點,如果突破,有可能進一步深入下跌。
  • 阻力:任何反彈都將面臨0.5800和0.5850水準的阻力。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025
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