The Australian dollar has been unable to make headway. So, AUD/USD retreated to lows below 0.6720 during Thursday's Asian session before a recovery to 0.6740. The pair remains close to 10-year lows just below 0.6700 registered earlier in August.
The latest Australian macroeconomic data remained weak with business investment declining 0.5% in the second quarter following a revised 1.3% decline in the first quarter. There was also a sharp 7.2% drop in new home sales following a 12.4% slump in the previous month.
There was, however, a 2.5% increase in plant and machinery spending which is a key component in the GDP calculation.
Domestic bond yields remain close to record lows with the benchmark 10-year yield around 0.88% with negative yields in real terms. The bond market is overbought given domestic inflation trends.
Second-quarter GDP data will be released next Wednesday and growth will also be supported by robust government spending.
The Reserve Bank of Australian will announce its latest interest rate decision on Tuesday with interest rates expected to be held at 1.00%.
Global trade and growth fears will continue to determine market sentiment in the short term with fears that the US-China trade war will severely damage growth. Inevitably, AUD/USD will be driven by trade headlines.
Australia's trade surplus hit a record high in July. Copper managed to recover from 2-year lows recorded earlier this week with iron ore prices also making strong gains on Thursday. Gold is trading near 6-year highs while silver remains at 28-month highs.
Despite the gloomy market mood, the Baltic dry bulk index which is an index of activity in the shipping sector has strengthened to the highest level since late 2013 which suggests that underlying global trade conditions have held firm.
CFTC data recorded little change in the latest week and close to record highs, indicating prospects for short covering if sentiment shifts.
Technically, there should be strong AUD/USD support into the 0.6700 area.
歐元兌美元顯示出強勁上漲勢頭。EUR/USD 貨幣對已經達到三年以來的新高,且沒有放緩的跡象。
週四,投資者意識到,目前並不存在穩定性。高市場波動性依舊存在,並將在一段時間內持續主導市場。
如果人生不是一場遊戲,那會是什麼?過去幾年,投資者關注美聯儲和金融市場之間的對峙。但到了2025年,遊戲規則發生了變化。
星期五有相對較多的宏觀經濟事件預定,但預期不會對市場產生影響。當然,針對個別報告,我們可能會看到短期反應,但普遍認為市場依然由特朗普推動。
GBP/USD 貨幣對在週四同樣走高。提醒一下,目前的宏觀經濟和傳統的基本面因素對貨幣波動幾乎沒有影響。
週三晚上,EUR/USD貨幣對急劇下跌,但在白天顯示出一定的回升。週四進一步上漲——這一系列的波動只能用過山車來形容。
英鎊/美元貨幣對在週四也呈現強勁增長,儘管不如歐元/美元貨幣對那樣強勁。英鎊只上漲了約 200 點——在當前情況下這並不是一個可觀的變動。
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